Israel and Hamas have reached agreement on a ceasefire with Qatar and Egypt serving as mediators, and the representative of President Joe Biden (Brett McGurk) and President-elect Donald Trump (Steve Witkoff) playing pivotal roles. The text has not been released yet Qatar’s Prime Minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, summarised the main provisions during a press conference yesterday (16 January). And it is not yet sewn up: under pressure from his far-right political allies, this morning Benjamin Netanyahu accused Hamas of reneging on parts of the deal, and the Israeli cabinet has delayed a vote to endorse it. But perhaps this is indicative – even should the ceasefire hold, peace itself is a long way off.
For Qatar, the deal – which will take effect on 19 January – was another opportunity to demonstrate that it punches well above its weight. For Biden, it is a final foreign policy triumph. For Trump, who has warned that Hamas would have “hell to pay” if it failed to release all Israeli hostages, the agreement adds to the buzz surrounding his inauguration and vindicates the narrative he and his inner circle – including Witkoff, who claimed that Trump is “driving” the talks – have propagated, namely that the fear of Trump would force Hamas to sign a ceasefire deal, never mind that all hostages will not be freed by January 20, when he will be inaugurated.
This accord is virtually identical to the 6 May 2024 ceasefire agreement, which Hamas accepted. Netanyahu did not; he wanted a temporary ceasefire that could be extended to allow the return of as many hostages as possible, not a permanent one that would prevent the evisceration of Hamas, his declared objective. His confidence proved misplaced. Despite the IDF’s fearsome firepower, Hamas refused to surrender. Indeed, under the leadership of Yahya’s brother, Mohammed, it has replenished its ranks, undaunted by Israel’s relentless strikes and the crippling blows the IDF inflicted recently on Hamas’ ally Hezbollah.
At least 405 Israeli soldiers have been killed since Israel launched its invasion of Gaza, including five in recent days. Netanyahu may have come to realise the IDF was unable to eliminate Hamas and that continuing the war would only ensure the relentless protests in Israel demanding the return of the hostages would continue, along with growing public opposition to sacrifice of Israeli soldiers for an unattainable goal. As for Hamas, this agreement contains almost everything it has sought in previous negotiations – a permanent end to the war, the IDF’s complete withdrawal from Gaza and the release of numerous Palestinians from Israeli jails. It is therefore as significant a breakthrough for their movement as it is for Netanyahu.
Author
Rajan
Menon
Non-Resident Senior Fellow
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