Sham referendums change the dynamics and raise the risks in Ukraine

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
September 28, 2022
Contact: press@defensepriorities.org

WASHINGTON, DC—Under Russian supervision, four Ukrainian provinces have voted to join Russia in referendums widely regarded as illegitimate. Defense Priorities Director of Grand Strategy Rajan Menon issued the following statement in response:

“In no sense can the referendums Russia is conducting in the territories it has occupied in Ukraine be considered legal, free, or fair—they are illegitimate by any standard and under international law. Russia will use the predetermined outcomes to take formal steps to change the legal status of the territories: They will, in Russia’s view and public narrative, have become part of the Russian Federation. The referendums have a wider strategic significance with at least two consequences for the war in Ukraine, neither of them positive.

“First, the annexation of the territories will destroy whatever chances—slim at best to begin with—exist for a political settlement between Russia and Ukraine based on mutual compromises. Once Moscow declares the territories have legally become part of the Russian Federation, it will be all but impossible, even for Russian President Vladimir Putin, to relinquish even part of them as part of a diplomatic deal. In effect, Putin is signaling that whatever setbacks his armed forces may have suffered in recent weeks, he remains determined to prevail on the battlefield. Because Ukraine is equally determined to regain its territories, the result is that the war will drag on.’

“Second, both President Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have stated that Russia will defend these territories using all means at its disposal, just as it would all other parts of the Russian Federation—and including with nuclear weapons if need be. In response, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan warned Russia that it would face catastrophic consequences if it resorted to nuclear weapons. The upshot: nuclear escalation—while by no means inevitable—has at minimum now become more likely.”

Author

Rajan
Menon

Non-Resident Senior Fellow