On the eve of NATO’s Washington summit, which runs Tuesday to Thursday and marks the alliance’s 75th anniversary, American foreign policy mavens identified with the realist school of thought signed an open letter warning against steps that would move Ukraine closer to NATO membership. First published in Politico and later in the U.K.’s Guardian, the letter makes a case against such steps on two grounds.
The first is that it would increase the risks of war with Russia. Article V of the alliance’s April 4, 1949, founding treaty provides—albeit with some wiggle room—for the collective defense of member states that come under attack. Were Russia to attack a Ukraine allied with NATO, the U.S.-led military pact would be at war with Russia. The letter writers’ second argument against bringing Ukraine into NATO is that no important American national security interest warrants running this risk.
The letter’s signatories might have spared themselves the effort of writing. Even though NATO membership is something President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government has pushed for and, according to a recent poll, 77% of Ukrainians desire, there’s no chance NATO will take concrete steps that solidify Ukraine’s prospects for membership. To understand why NATO won’t oblige Ukraine, we need to look back and look forward.
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