Key takeaways
Ukraine-Russia
- Most respondents (80%) indicated the U.S. should either make aid to Ukraine conditional, reduce aid, or cut aid to Ukraine entirely.
- A majority of respondents (52%) did not think Ukraine can win the war against Russia.
- A plurality of respondents (42%) expected the Ukraine-Russia war would end through negotiations or a ceasefire, and 26% expected ongoing fighting and trench warfare that may slow or stall but not formally end.
- A plurality of respondents (47%) strongly agreed (22%) or somewhat agreed (25%) the U.S. should not allow Ukraine to strike Russian territory with U.S. weapons because it could escalate the war and lead to direct NATO-Russia conflict.
China-Taiwan
- Just 30% of respondents said the U.S. should defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion given the potential costs.
- A plurality of respondents (44%) strongly agreed (19%) or somewhat agreed (25%) that avoiding war with China is more important than Taiwan’s political autonomy from Beijing.
- Twice as many people (66%) think the U.S. should require Taiwan to invest more in capabilities to deter China as a prerequisite for any commitments from the U.S. to defend Taiwan.
Israel-Hamas and Saudi Arabia
- More than twice as many respondents (47% vs. 20%) indicated the U.S. should use its leverage to encourage Israel to not expand the conflict into Lebanon by going to war with Hezbollah.
- A large majority (81%) of respondents opposed a U.S. commitment to send U.S. servicemembers into combat to fight and die to defend Saudi Arabia.
Background
To better understand the general public’s feelings on various pressing foreign policy issues and to assess the degree of disconnect between elites and the public, Defense Priorities commissioned YouGov to conduct a survey of the foreign policy opinions of 1,000 adult Americans. Respondents were polled July 18–24, 2024, about their feelings on the United States’ role in the world and its handling of a range of issues from the Ukraine-Russia war, a China-Taiwan contingency, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and more. The survey results show Washington is often out of step with the policy preferences of the American people.
Poll results: Ukraine-Russia war
80% of respondents believed the U.S. should either make aid to Ukraine conditional, reduce aid, or cut aid to Ukraine entirely.
Question: Which of the following best describe your views about future U.S. support for Ukraine?
52% of respondents did not think Ukraine can win the Ukraine-Russia War.
Question: Do you think Ukraine can win the Ukraine-Russia War?
Only 13% of respondents thought Russian military forces would collapse, while 42% expected the war would end through negotiations/ceasefire.
Question: Which of the following do you think is the most likely outcome of the Ukraine-Russia War?
61% of respondents do not think the U.S. has a strategy for the Ukraine-Russia war.
Question: Do you think the U.S. has a strategy for the Ukraine-Russia war?
50% of respondents agreed troops from NATO countries should not be deployed to Ukraine, even for training purposes, because Ukrainian troops can be trained outside of Ukraine at less risk. Only 14% disagreed.
Question: To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Soldiers from NATO countries should not be deployed to Ukraine (even for training purposes) because Ukrainian troops can be trained outside of Ukraine (e.g., in Poland) at less risk to NATO personnel.
46% of respondents agreed that soldiers from NATO countries should not be deployed to Ukraine because it is not operationally necessary and they could act as a tripwire. Only 17% disagreed.
Question: To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Soldiers from NATO countries should not be deployed to Ukraine (even for training purposes) because it is not operationally necessary and could be a tripwire that leads to direct NATO-Russia conflict.
Nearly half (46%) of respondents did not think the U.S. should defend Ukraine if it meant increasing the risks of a Russian nuclear strike on a U.S. city.
Question: To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The U.S. should help defend Ukraine even if it means a greater risk that the U.S would have to absorb a nuclear strike from Russia on a U.S. city.
Poll results: China-Taiwan contingency
Only 30% of respondents felt the U.S. should defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion despite the potential costs (37% disagreed); twice as many (44%) felt avoiding a war with China was more important than Taiwan’s political autonomy.
Poll results: Israel-Hamas war and Saudi Arabia security guarantee
Nearly 50% of respondents believed the U.S. should use its leverage to encourage Israel to avoid war with Hezbollah.
Question: Israel and Hezbollah—the terrorist group which controls southern Lebanon—are on the precipice of a major war. The United States is likely to be drawn into any such conflict in an effort to protect Israel. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: U.S. should use its leverage to encourage Israel to not expand the conflict into Lebanon by going to war with Hezbollah.
81% of respondents did not think the U.S. should commit to sending U.S. service members into combat to defend Saudi Arabia.
Question: The U.S. is currently contemplating giving the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia a security guarantee, a formal commitment to come to Riyadh’s defense if it is attacked. Should the U.S. commit to sending U.S. service members into combat to fight and die to defend Saudi Arabia?
Methodology
YouGov interviewed 1,176 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 1,000 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative “modeled frame” of U.S. adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote. The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, region, and home ownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles. The weights were then post-stratified on 2020 presidential vote choice as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories), followed by a two-way stratification of race (4-categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.
Additional analysis and experts
For more analysis, see Ukraine-Russia, Israel-Hamas, and China policy topics pages. Connect with experts here.