The drowning man of Europe?

A public rupture between Poland and Ukraine has wider implications for the limits of NATO’s support for Kyiv. What seemingly started as a dispute over cheap Ukrainian grain flooding into Poland has, in an escalatory fashion, evolved into the Polish government announcing that it will no longer supply Ukraine with weapons. Granted, a Polish election is on the horizon. There is likely some degree of campaigning afoot — but that fact does not diminish that this shift in tone is finding fertile ground in Poland.

It cannot be overlooked that Warsaw has been one of Kyiv’s most stalwart supporters since Russia invaded Ukraine last year. Poland has taken in refugees, offered billions in aid, and also floated some very hawkish ideas to defend Ukraine and escalate NATO’s involvement in the conflict. In the opening weeks of the war, Poland proposed a NATO peacekeeping mission in Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki acknowledged that it could involve an air and ground force, meaning NATO troops (read: U.S. troops) risking direct conflict with Russia to defend Ukraine. In March 2022, the Polish ambassador to Ukraine voiced support for a NATO-enforced no-fly zone in Ukraine, which would likewise mean direct conflict between U.S. and Russian jets — an act of war between the only two nuclear superpowers.

Those proposals stand in marked contrast to recent statements from Poland’s officials. Morawiecki has told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to never “insult Poles again”, and Polish President Andrzej Duda has likened Ukraine to a desperate “drowning person” who might “drown the rescuer”.

What was behind Poland’s staunch support for Ukraine? According to one popular narrative, it was an anxiety that should Ukraine fall, Poland would likely be the next target of an imperialist project of expansion launched by Vladimir Putin. It’s a scary story, but an inaccurate one. Poland’s public break with Ukraine and decision to halt the supply of weapons to Kyiv betrays the truth: Warsaw’s interests in Ukraine are limited — and Ukraine winning or losing is not an existential question for Poland.

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