Will the Kursk raid backfire on Ukraine?

Over the past week, Ukrainian forces have established a 1,000-square-kilometre bulge in Russia’s Kursk region. An additional thrust to the south, in the Belgorod region, is also underway. Ukraine‘s foreign ministry says it aims to create a buffer zone to prevent missile attacks, but other objectives seem paramount: to draw Russian forces from the front lines, seize a bargaining chip for future negotiations, embarrass the Kremlin, and boost Ukrainian morale while heartening its Western backers.

The Kursk attacks are more akin to border raids than a genuine offensive campaign. As with Ukrainian missile attacks on Russian naval forces in the Black Sea or targets inside Russia, the raid serves to harass Russian forces and distract them from their main objective. But it cannot substitute for the combat power needed to exploit a breakthrough in Russia’s front lines — combat power that Kyiv does not possess and seems unable to generate.

So far, Russia does not seem to have drawn significant forces from the front lines, though the army has reportedly moved some. Russian commanders may prefer to keep up pressure there and let reserve forces labour to reverse the incursion, expecting that logistical burdens will make it harder to maintain. What’s more, with Russia concentrating airpower on stopping Ukraine’s forces, and the heavier losses troops on offensive tend to suffer versus defenders, Ukraine may be sacrificing manpower it increasingly needs for defence. But it’s also worth noting that as Ukraine grabs territory in Russia, Russia is making steady and more consequential progress inside Ukraine.

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