Iran’s decision to launch approximately 200 ballistic missiles into Israel this week tells us two things. First, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was so concerned about the weakening of Tehran’s strategic position after weeks of Israeli operations against Hezbollah that he believed a direct attack on Israel was required to build back some of its deterrent. Second, Khamenei and his advisers are more worried than ever that after its proxy in Lebanon is degraded, Israel may look to cut off the head of the snake—the clerical regime in Tehran itself.
An Iranian missile attack on Israeli territory—even if the attack resulted in light damage—is liable to increase, not reduce, that prospect. The Iranian government gave Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a warning—If you retaliate, then expect more powerful strikes. Netanyahu, though, doesn’t view those statements as particularly convincing. “The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies,” Netanyahu said recently. “They will understand, whoever attacks us—we will attack him.”
The question isn’t whether Israel will retaliate but rather how.
Author
Daniel
DePetris
Fellow
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