The U.S. Is Caught in an Escalation Spiral in the Middle East

Right now, the U.S. is in real danger of being drawn into a conflict with Iran against its own national interests. National security advisor Jake Sullivan confirmed earlier this month that the U.S. will work with Israel to ensure Iran suffers “severe consequences” for its missile attack this month, which resulted in no casualties. Hawks are already picking out targets—perhaps Iran’s oil industry, perhaps its nuclear facilities—for a coordinated retaliatory strike.

Escalation would be madness, but as risks go, it’s hardly unprecedented.

What’s happening now is a classic problem of alliances, called the chain-ganging effect. The interests of allies sometimes diverge, and problems arise when one ally wants to do something in its own perceived interest that hurts the interests of the other—or even drags it into conflict, as is the case now with Israel and the United States.

A major Israeli war in Lebanon is not in U.S. interests at all, because it would unleash escalatory pressures that could be very difficult to resist. Already, pressure is mounting on the U.S. to go on offense with airstrikes against Iran after Tehran’s strike on Israel.

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