What To Make of Russia’s New Nuclear Doctrine

Two days after President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Mission Systems (ATACMS) to strike military targets deeper into Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin made his own formal announcement about a change to Russia’s nuclear doctrine. It likely wasn’t a coincidence that Putin’s new policy was released so closely to Biden’s decision.

While Putin telegraphed an evolution of Russia’s nuclear doctrine back in September, it’s reasonable to assume Moscow’s written version of the change was sped up by Biden’s ATACMS move. The Russians have spent months warning Washington that permitting Ukraine to employ longer-range U.S. ballistic missiles into Russian territory would be akin to Washington becoming an active participant in the war against Russia. Russian officials were hopping mad when Biden went ahead anyway. Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president and now deputy head of the Russian Security Council engaged in his usual histrionics, threatening that U.S. that NATO targets were now fair game for the Russian military. The Biden administration, which is used to this type of fire-breathing language from the Kremlin, responded with a shrug. “Observing no changes to Russia’s nuclear posture, we have not seen any reason to adjust our own nuclear posture or doctrine in response to Russia’s statements today,” a U.S. National Security Council spokesperson said.

What should we make about Russia’s new nuclear policy? First, everybody should calm down. The Russians aren’t about to send nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles into Berlin, London, or Washington, D.C. World War III isn’t near, no matter what Donald Trump Jr. may say. Putin may be an egomaniac with imperial tendencies and a flare for self-aggrandizement, but he isn’t stupid enough to believe a nuclear exchange with the U.S. or NATO would serve Russia’s security interests. At this stage in the war with Ukraine, tactical nuclear weapons wouldn’t be especially helpful for the Russians either—Russian forces, after all, are slowly advancing on the battlefield, so they aren’t needed.

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Author

Daniel
DePetris

Fellow