North Korea is weak and deterred—U.S. security is not in question

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
April 21, 2020
Contact: press@defensepriorities.org

WASHINGTON, DC—Unconfirmed media reports speculated North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s health might be in question. Defense Priorities Policy Director Benjamin H. Friedman issued the following statement in response:

“Amid unconfirmed reports and speculation about Kim Jong-un’s health, it’s important to recognize any change in leadership would not change the balance of power between the U.S. and North Korea. Whatever happens, North Korea will remain weak and deterred—U.S. security is not in question.

“Too much stock is put in the personalities of leaders, rather than the politics and interests that drive their behavior, even tyrants. Another North Korean government would likely have priorities quite similar to this one. The same history and insecurity vis-à-vis its southern neighbor and other major powers means it is unlikely to denuclearize in the near-term, if ever. The same interest in economic relief, with the the same weak hand to play, means it would likely continue to develop and test weapons.

“A less entrenched regime might be even less willing to entertain bargains limiting North Korea’s nuclear arsenal. A leader with a shakier hold on power might be less likely to cut risky deals to disarm.

“The uncertainty about Kim is a reminder why normalizing U.S.-North Korea relations is useful. Better relations would help insure that North Korea’s military and nuclear stockpile are controlled to prevent accidents, miscalculation, and proliferation.”

Author

Benjamin
Friedman

Policy Director

Defense Priorities