Expert Survey: U.S. Support to Taiwan 1. How would you assess the likelihood of a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan in the next five years?* Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely 2. If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan, how would you assess the likelihood that Beijing would preemptively strike U.S. bases in Japan?* Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely 3. If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan, how would you assess the likelihood that Beijing preemptively strikes U.S. bases in Guam?* Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely 4. If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and does not strike U.S. targets at the outset, how would you assess the likelihood that the United States stays entirely uninvolved, offering no military support of any kind?* Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely 5. If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and does not strike U.S. targets at the outset, how would you assess the likelihood that the United States offers military assistance in the form of weapons but not does not send troops, as it has done in Ukraine?* Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely 6. If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and does not strike U.S. targets at the outset, how would you assess the likelihood that the United States supports Taiwan directly by sending U.S. military forces to defend the island?* Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely 7. If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and does not strike U.S. targets at the outset, how would you assess the political pressure from the general public that an American president would face to send U.S. forces to defend the island?* Very high High Moderate Low Very low 8. If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and does not strike U.S. targets at the outset, how would you assess the political pressure from Congress that an American president would face to send U.S. forces to defend the island?* Very high High Moderate Low Very low 9. If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and the United States sends military forces to defend the island, how would you assess the likelihood that U.S. regional allies contribute troops to fight alongside U.S. forces?* Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely 9a. Please specify which allies you think are very or somewhat likely to contribute troops.10. If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and does not strike U.S. targets at the outset, how do you think the U.S. should respond?* Intervene directly by sending military forces to defend the island Offer military assistance but keep U.S. forces out of the conflict Remain uninvolved 11. If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and the United States sends military forces to defend Taiwan, how would you assess the likelihood that China achieves its objective of seizing Taiwan, assuming no nuclear weapons were used?* Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely 12. If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and the United States sends military forces to defend Taiwan, how long do you expect the conflict to last before one side achieves its objectives or a settlement is reached?* Less than one month 1–6 months 6–12 months 1–3 years More than 3 years 13. If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and the United States sends military forces to defend the island, what is your best estimate of the total U.S. military fatalities (as a reference point, U.S. fatalities in Vietnam were 58,000 and U.S. fatalities in World War II were 400,000)?* Thousands Tens of thousands Hundreds of thousands More than 1 million 14. If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and the United States sends military forces to defend the island, how would you assess the likelihood that tactical nuclear weapons are used by either the United States or China?* Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely 15. If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and the United States sends military forces to defend the island, how would you assess the likelihood that strategic nuclear weapons are used by either the United States or China?* Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely 16. How would you assess the military benefits China would gain were it to seize Taiwan?* Very high High Moderate Low Very low 17. How would you assess the economic benefits China would gain were it to seize Taiwan?* Very high High Moderate Low Very low 18. How would you assess the importance of maintaining the status quo in China-Taiwan relations to U.S. military power in Asia?* Very high High Moderate Low Very low 19. How would you assess the importance of maintaining the status quo in China-Taiwan relations to U.S. economic growth?* Very high High Moderate Low Very low 20. If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan, the United States stays uninvolved, and China succeeds in seizing the island, how would you assess the likelihood that U.S. allies move away from the United States and bandwagon with China?* Very high High Moderate Low Very low 21. If China decides to launch a military invasion of Taiwan, the United States stays uninvolved, and China succeeds in seizing the island, how would you assess the likelihood that U.S. allies lean toward and balance with the United States?* Very high High Moderate Low Very low 22. The most important reason the United States should use military force to prevent China from seizing Taiwan is:*23. The most important reason the United States should not use military force to prevent China from seizing Taiwan is:*24. Please specify your age range: Under 30 30–44 45–59 60–75 Over 75 Prefer not to say 25. Please specify your military experience: Active duty or reservist Former active duty or reservist No military experience Prefer not to say
